Last Marquette Poll before Election Day shows Wisconsin governor, U.S. Senate races as tossups

November 2, 2022 12:47 PM

Jaymes Langrehr,

Posted: November 2, 2022 12:47 PM

Updated: November 2, 2022 5:13 PM

by Jaymes Langrehr

MADISON, Wis. — The latest poll from Marquette Law School — and the last one before Election Day — finds the races for Wisconsin governor and U.S. Senate will likely be extremely close.

Among those who say they are certain to vote or have already voted, Marquette pollsters found the governor’s race between Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels is a true tossup, with 48% saying they will support Gov. Evers and 48% saying they will support Michels.

In the race for governor, new Marquette Law School Poll finds 48% of likely voters support Democratic incumbent Evers and 48% favor Republican challenger Tim Michels. In early October, among likely voters, it was Evers 47% and Michels 46% among likely voters. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

The race for U.S. Senate between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has also tightened, with 50% of people polled who are certain to vote or have already voted saying they support the incumbent Sen. Johnson and 48% saying they support Lt. Gov. Barnes.

In new Marquette Law School Poll, 50% of likely voters in WI support Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in the Senate race and 48% support Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. In early October, August, it was Johnson 52% and Barnes 46%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Both races fall well within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.8% among likely voters, leading poll director Charles Franklin to say both are tossups with no candidates clearly ahead in the minds of voters less than a week from Election Day.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 24 and Nov. 1, with 46% of the people polled saying they are Republicans or lean Republican, 44% saying they are Democrats or lean Democrat, and 9% considering themselves true independents.

In-person absentee “early” voting began in Wisconsin on Oct. 25, with thousands of people submitting their votes already. As of Wednesday morning, the City of Madison Clerk’s Office said a total of 40,435 absentee ballots have been returned ahead of Election Day, with 12,755 people voting early in person.

Absentee stats for the @CityofMadison as of this morning, 11/02/22.

▶️48,909 absentee ballots issued
▶️40,435 absentee ballots returned
▶️12,755 in-person absentee voters
▶️183,064 registered voters#MadisonVotes2022 #BeAVoter pic.twitter.com/pBq0FnVO1w

— Madison WI Clerk (@MadisonWIClerk) November 2, 2022

Marquette’s poll results come a day after a poll conducted by Fox News also found the U.S. Senate race to be virtually tied, with Sen. Johnson being the preferred candidate for 48% of those polled compared to 45% in favor of Lt. Gov. Barnes if those surveyed were asked to vote now — almost exactly within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3%. Among those who are certain to vote or already voted, the margin shrunk further, with 48% saying they would or already have voted for Sen. Johnson and 46% saying they would or already have voted for Lt. Gov. Barnes. Independents polled by Fox News favored Lt. Gov. Barnes by 7%.

In Fox News’ poll for the governor’s race, 47% of those surveyed said they would vote for Michels if asked to vote now and 46% said they would vote for Gov. Evers, with the margin of error again sitting at +/- 3%. Of those who said they were certain to vote or have already voted, 48% backed Michels and 47% backed Evers.

The Fox News poll was conducted between Oct. 26-30 through 1,000 phone interviews with registered voters in Wisconsin with bipartisan help from two research firms.

The previous poll from Marquette Law School released on October 12 saw 47% of likely voters supporting Gov. Evers and 46% favoring Michels in the governor’s race, while the Senate race saw a wider margin with 52% saying they would likely vote for Sen. Johnson and 46% saying they would vote for Lt. Gov. Barnes. Both results in October had a margin of error of 4.8%.

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