Look for Norway to top medal table again at Winter Olympics
STEPHEN WADE AP Sports Writer
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Updated:
The Winter Olympics open in 30 days, and Norway is expected to head the medal standings for the second straight time, even topping its record haul of 39 medals in 2018 in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
This is the prediction of U.S.-based Gracenote Sports, which released its medal table forecast on Wednesday with the Beijing Winter Games opening on Feb. 4.
Nielsen-Gracenote supplies statistical analysis to sports league around the world. Its Olympic numbers are based off computer models that analyze the most recent results in major competitions — and smaller ones — in the run-up to Beijing.
Norway is predicted to win 22 gold medals and 45 overall. More than half of Norway’s medals are predicted to come in cross country skiing and biathlon.
Second place, if total medals is used for the ranking order, will be the Russian Olympic Committee with 11 gold and 32 overall. The team in Beijing, as in Tokyo, will be known as the ROC, or the Russian Olympic Committee.
The ROC must compete without its national flag or anthem, fallout from a state-backed doping program dating from the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. Many critics say the punishment is negligible since athletes still compete in national colors.
Under the IOC guidelines, the athletes will represent not their country, but the ROC.
Germany is picked to finish third with 12 gold and 25 overall. After this, the next seven countries are closely grouped. They are: United States (7 gold, 22 overall), Canada (6-22), Sweden (7-21), Switzerland (5-21), Netherlands (6-20), Austria (5-18), and France (2-18).
Japan is expected to produce its most overall medals in a Winter Olympics with 17, including four gold medals. Host nation China is predicted to win six gold and 11 overall.
The Beijing Olympics have been shrouded in controversy with the United States and several other countries declining to send any high-ranking political representatives to Beijing. At the heart are allegations of crimes against humanity that target mostly Muslim ethnic minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.
Simon Gleave, the head of sports analysis for Gracenote, said predictions for Beijing are even more difficult with the pandemic. Athletes have missed competitions because of travel restrictions, particularly last season. And, of course, last-minute entry lists can change if athletes test positive for the coronavirus.
“Hopefully we have the kind of forecast which gets us as close as we usually do,” Gleave told The Associated Press.
“We’re looking to get the top 10 counties to be as close as possible and preferably in the right sort of order,” Gleave added. “But there will be changes to this because it is sports. Sports is unpredictable. We can’t get this absolutely bang-on, nor should we expect to.”
A big question is what to do about men’s ice hockey. The NHL’s withdrawal late last year shakes up the strength of many of the teams. Gleave said Gracenote had originally picked Canada to win gold, followed by Finland and the United States.
Gleave said the new projection has Finland winning gold, followed by ROC and bronze for Canada.
Gracenote is expected to update the medal predictions around Jan. 19 and issue a final forecast just days before the Olympics open as entry lists are firmed up.
Joshua Paul
It's a long list of rejections from cities across Europe. Oslo and Stockholm are the two high-profile cities that pulled out during the bidding process. Krakow, Poland, and Lviv, Ukraine, also withdrew bids.
Two other areas with potentially strong bids — St. Moritz, Switzerland, and Munich — were rejected by the public in voter referendums. The German rejection was a stinging blow to Bach, who is from Germany. It's also notable that the IOC headquarters are in Switzerland.
Oslo and Stockholm, probably regarded as the preferred venues as the IOC attempted to return the Olympics to traditional European winter venues, pulled out because of costs and politics.
Norwegian and IOC officials also traded public barbs in 2014 about their dissatisfaction with each other.
Details of the IOC's demands upon bid cities for its members — including a cocktail reception with the King of Norway, use of exclusive road lanes, and specific requests for fruit and cakes in hotel rooms — were leaked, and described as “pompousness” by one lawmaker.
A senior IOC official retorted the decision to withdraw Oslo was based on “half-truths and factual inaccuracies.”
Bach acknowledged at the time in a 2014 interview that the Winter Olympics were a tough sell.
“The number of candidates for winter is already very limited by geography,” he said. “Also we can’t forget that this is a challenging time with regard to the world economy.”
Joshua Paul
It's a long list of rejections from cities across Europe. Oslo and Stockholm are the two high-profile cities that pulled out during the bidding process. Krakow, Poland, and Lviv, Ukraine, also withdrew bids.
Two other areas with potentially strong bids — St. Moritz, Switzerland, and Munich — were rejected by the public in voter referendums. The German rejection was a stinging blow to Bach, who is from Germany. It's also notable that the IOC headquarters are in Switzerland.
Oslo and Stockholm, probably regarded as the preferred venues as the IOC attempted to return the Olympics to traditional European winter venues, pulled out because of costs and politics.
Norwegian and IOC officials also traded public barbs in 2014 about their dissatisfaction with each other.
Details of the IOC's demands upon bid cities for its members — including a cocktail reception with the King of Norway, use of exclusive road lanes, and specific requests for fruit and cakes in hotel rooms — were leaked, and described as “pompousness” by one lawmaker.
A senior IOC official retorted the decision to withdraw Oslo was based on “half-truths and factual inaccuracies.”
Bach acknowledged at the time in a 2014 interview that the Winter Olympics were a tough sell.
“The number of candidates for winter is already very limited by geography,” he said. “Also we can’t forget that this is a challenging time with regard to the world economy.”
The choice for the IOC members came down to two authoritarian governments that did not require any public vote, and also had few constraints on spending: Beijing and Almaty.
Beijing spent more than $40 billion on the 2008 Summer Olympics.
In promoting their proposals, organizers in Almaty at the time said 79% supported the bid. Beijing said 94.8% in China were in favor.
Almaty tried to win the vote, reminding that it was a winter sports city surrounded by mountains and natural snow. It was a dig at Beijing, which has no winter sports tradition and little natural snow in the areas picked for skiing.
Beijing and some IOC members countered that skiers actually prefer artificial snow. The IOC also saw Beijing as a huge winter-sports business opportunity.
Beijing won by four votes, which was described as much closer than expected, in a second attempt using paper ballots. A first attempt at electronic voting was scrapped citing technical issues.
IOC members chose what they believed to be the less risky option, which has not turned out that way.
“It really is a safe choice,” IOC President Bach said at the time. “We know China will deliver on its promises.”
The choice for the IOC members came down to two authoritarian governments that did not require any public vote, and also had few constraints on spending: Beijing and Almaty.
Beijing spent more than $40 billion on the 2008 Summer Olympics.
In promoting their proposals, organizers in Almaty at the time said 79% supported the bid. Beijing said 94.8% in China were in favor.
Almaty tried to win the vote, reminding that it was a winter sports city surrounded by mountains and natural snow. It was a dig at Beijing, which has no winter sports tradition and little natural snow in the areas picked for skiing.
Beijing and some IOC members countered that skiers actually prefer artificial snow. The IOC also saw Beijing as a huge winter-sports business opportunity.
Beijing won by four votes, which was described as much closer than expected, in a second attempt using paper ballots. A first attempt at electronic voting was scrapped citing technical issues.
IOC members chose what they believed to be the less risky option, which has not turned out that way.
“It really is a safe choice,” IOC President Bach said at the time. “We know China will deliver on its promises.”
Getting down to two candidates — neither the top choices — shocked the IOC. It was part of the reason that the IOC no longer goes through a long bid process to pick host cities. Bach said at the time that the bid process produced too many “losers."
Moreover, it was embarrassing for the IOC to explain why voters turned down holding the Olympics — particularly the smaller Winter Games. The bid process was also soiled by scandals surrounding the awarding of the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics, in which IOC member were allegedly bribed for their votes.
The bidding for the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games was also hit by scandal.
Under the IOC's new process of choosing venues, the approximately 100 IOC members no longer vote. The choice is made by the leadership headed by Bach. The IOC has already chosen venues for the Olympics through 2032.
They are: 2024 Paris; 2026 Milan-Cortina, Italy; 2028 Los Angeles; 2032 Brisbane, Australia. The only open slot is the 2030 Winter Olympics, in which Sapporo, Japan, seems to be the leading candidate. The IOC has not indicated when that choice will be made.
Bullit Marquez
Getting down to two candidates — neither the top choices — shocked the IOC. It was part of the reason that the IOC no longer goes through a long bid process to pick host cities. Bach said at the time that the bid process produced too many “losers."
Moreover, it was embarrassing for the IOC to explain why voters turned down holding the Olympics — particularly the smaller Winter Games. The bid process was also soiled by scandals surrounding the awarding of the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics, in which IOC member were allegedly bribed for their votes.
The bidding for the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games was also hit by scandal.
Under the IOC's new process of choosing venues, the approximately 100 IOC members no longer vote. The choice is made by the leadership headed by Bach. The IOC has already chosen venues for the Olympics through 2032.
They are: 2024 Paris; 2026 Milan-Cortina, Italy; 2028 Los Angeles; 2032 Brisbane, Australia. The only open slot is the 2030 Winter Olympics, in which Sapporo, Japan, seems to be the leading candidate. The IOC has not indicated when that choice will be made.
Staff members hold up medals as they rehearse a victory ceremony at the Beijing Medals Plaza of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, China on Jan. 3, 2022. The Beijing Winter Olympics open in 30 days, and Norway is expected to head the medal table for the second straight time, even topping its record haul of 39 medals in 2018 in Pyeongchang, South Korea. This is the prediction of U.S.-based Gracenote Sports, which released its outlook on Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022 with the Olympics opening on Feb. 4. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Ng Han Guan
Staff members hold up medals as they rehearse a victory ceremony at the Beijing Medals Plaza of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, China on Jan. 3, 2022. The Beijing Winter Olympics open in 30 days, and Norway is expected to head the medal table for the second straight time, even topping its record haul of 39 medals in 2018 in Pyeongchang, South Korea. This is the prediction of U.S.-based Gracenote Sports, which released its outlook on Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022 with the Olympics opening on Feb. 4. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
